Gov. Walker's rockiest week since the recall culminated with the release Thursday of documents containing allegations by prosecutors that he was part of “a criminal scheme” to bypass state election laws.
But the story that in the long run may represent a more fundamental political challenge for the governor was the batch of new jobs figures also out Thursday painting an unflattering picture of Walker’s first three years in office.
Wisconsin ranked 35 of 50 states in private-sector job growth between 2010 and 2013, trailing all its closest Midwest neighbors — even Illinois, the state the governor has repeatedly bashed for having a hostile business climate.
This wasn’t just another mundane jobs report. It contained the most accurate and thorough pre-election portrait we’re going to get of how Wisconsin’s job performance compares with that of other states during Walker’s first term.
Between these two “bad news” stories for Walker last week, the allegations about illegal campaign coordination were a lot more sensational. They made national headlines, thanks to Walker’s status as a possible 2016 presidential candidate. They raise real issues about how campaigns are financed. But where they lead is anyone’s guess. No actual charges have been filed. The legal questions are complex and fiercely disputed. And the investigation is tied up in court and may never be completed.
Jobs, on the other hand, are an enduring, bread-and-butter political issue everyone can understand.
“The jobs issue is still going to be around in November,” pollster Charles Franklin says. “The two sides have competing arguments about it. And we know voters care about the economy and care about jobs.”
Unfortunately for the governor, waging a competitive re-election fight against Democrat Mary Burke, the data on job growth in Wisconsin keep providing his opponents with political ammunition.
Here are some takeaways from last week’s report from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, the government’s most reliable source of employment data and the one the governor himself has endorsed as the authoritative measure of job trends at the state level:
Falling far short of his jobs promise. During Walker’s first three years in office, Wisconsin added 91,813 private sector jobs. In his 2010 campaign, Walker famously pledged 250,000 new private-sector jobs in his first term. It should have been clear at the time that target was implausible. Meeting it required averaging 62,500 new jobs a year. That’s 23,000 more than the best single year of private-sector job growth during predecessor Jim Doyle’s two terms. The upside of making an audacious campaign promise is that it’s a commanding way to deliver a political message. The downside is that there’s a pretty good chance you won’t fulfill it. The first three-quarters of his term brought Walker 37% of the way there. Instead of 250,000 new private-sector jobs, the state is on pace for less than half that many in Walker’s first term.
Lagging behind the nation and region. In each of Walker’s first three years, Wisconsin has added private-sector jobs more slowly than the nation as whole, and the gap is sizable. Wisconsin has averaged 1.3% in annual private-sector job growth since 2010; the national average has been 2.1%. Wisconsin’s ranking in private-sector job growth was 35 among the 50 states in 2011, 36 in 2012 and 37 in 2013.
Combining the first three years of Walker’s term, the state ranks behind all its closest and most comparable Midwest neighbors: Michigan (6 of 50), Indiana (15), Minnesota (20), Ohio (25), Iowa (28) and Illinois (33).
Continuation of a trend. Wisconsin’s below-average job performance is not new. The state performed worse than the national average in five of eight years under Gov. Doyle, a Democrat. Its best ranking in the last 10 years was during Doyle’s final year in office, when Wisconsin ranked 11th in private-sector job growth. But its average annual ranking under Doyle was subpar — 29 of 50. Its average under Walker is even worse — 36 of 50. Economists will tell you governors have a limited ability to shape their state’s economies. Neither Doyle nor any other governor was to blame for the massive job losses caused by the national recession of 2008 and 2009, just as Wisconsin’s tepid growth today may be rooted in the state’s industrial mix and employment make-up, economists say.
But whatever you think has contributed to slow job growth here — overreliance on manufacturing, a brain drain of college grads, demographic trends, the governor’s policies, the political upheaval over the governor’s policies, the legacy of past policies — the job trends have failed to live up to Walker’s jobs rhetoric. There is no improving trend in the QCEW numbers from Doyle’s last year through Walker’s first three years; 2013 private-sector job growth was actually slower than 2010, 2011 and 2012 growth. While the unemployment rate is down, the 250,000 jobs target is nowhere in sight. And Wisconsin continues to underperform most states in the nation and region.
What are the political effects for Walker of slow job growth?
In a state as polarized by party as Wisconsin is, most voters are locked in already. And many already see the economy through a partisan lens. Most Republicans (74%) believe Wisconsin is keeping up with or outdoing other states in job creation, according to polling done by the Marquette Law School between May 2013 and May 2014. Most Democrats (65%) believe — correctly in this case — that Wisconsin is lagging behind. Independents are split in their perceptions.
But the polling also suggests that partisanship isn’t everything, that attitudes toward Walker are related to economic perceptions among both partisans and independents.
Walker’s approval rating among Republicans who think the state is lagging in job creation is considerably lower (69%) than it is among Republicans who think the state is keeping up or doing better (94%).
Walker’s approval rating among Democrats who think the state is keeping up in job creation (30%) is considerably higher than it is among Democrats who think the state is lagging (7%).
And the jobs picture seems to really matter for the most independent voters, those who don’t lean toward either party. Walker has a 63% approval rating among independents who think Wisconsin is keeping up with or outperforming other states on job creation, but just a 26% rating among those who think the state is lagging.
“With pure independents, you get a gigantic difference (over Walker) based on your view of the economy,” says Franklin, director of the Marquette poll.
These jobs numbers aren’t the only measure of Walker’s first term, and jobs aren’t the only issue in the 2014 governor’s race.
But because of Walker’s centerpiece 2010 jobs promise, and because the broader notion of a Wisconsin “turnaround” and economic success story is so central to the governor’s re-election message and any future presidential bid, the state’s lagging job growth will remain a political burden for Walker unless and until things get better.
Follow Craig Gilbert on Twitter @WisVoter
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